(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

14/12/2020. No F-283.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/218001516509418

This monitor dedicated to next forecast presentation of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia for the period from December 14 to 7 (main forecast) and 28 (rough forecast) days according to statistical data through December 13.

The main results of forecast calculations are showing in the diagrams in Fig. 1–12.

Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for a lead period of 28 days;

- boundaries…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

14/12/2020. No F-282.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/217898323186404

This monitor devoted to examining the results of accuracy assessing of the 21-day component forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia, compiled according to statistical data up to November 22, for 7 and 28 days, starting from November 23, 2020 (see https : //www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/203109591331944).

The results of a quantitative analysis of the 21-day accuracy forecast and the degree of its compliance with the actual data are showing in Table. 1–3.

Table 1 contains the calculated and actual values of the main cumulative indicators of the…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

13/12/2020. No F-281.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/217328673243369

This forecast devoted to the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from December 14 to 20 (the main short-term forecast) and to January 10, 2021 (an approximate medium-term 4-week forecast) was compiled basis on official statistics available on December 13, using a set of development models of epidemics.

Compiling this forecast, a systemic epidemic model of the SEIRD type, SARIMA, ETS (Holt-Winters’ seasonal method), TCM, FB Prophet models and the author’s method of statistical modeling of time series with a seasonal component…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

13/12/2020. No F-280.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/217044106605159

This monitor devoted to the accuracy analysis of the weekly MS consensus forecast component, compiled for the period from December 7 to 13, 2020 plus 3 weeks. Forecast published in the FB on December 6, 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ ab.alyokhin / posts / 212407330402170) and on the website of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the presentation of the forecast in quantitative (tabular) form on December 7 (http://www.nas.gov.ua/UA/Messages/Pages/View.aspx?MessageID = 7237).

Recall that the MC consensus forecast is an averaging of private forecasts obtained using various models…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

12/12/2020. S-No 173.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/216311653345071

After a week’s break, we present another statistical monitor with ratings of a key countries number according to the level of the IP progress indicator. This frequency is due to the inertia of the short-term changes indicators in the IP indicator, even in the context of the active COVID-19 pandemic development.

___

However, first we will give arguments (see screenshots of the NSDC website) why Turkey excluded from our monitor.

As the first screen shows, in the NSDC database, as of December 10, the total number…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

10/12/2020. No F-279.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/214911373485099

This Forecast Monitor devoted to analyze the accuracy of the COVID-19 outbreak forecast for Italy published on November 20, 2020 (see https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/200837361559167). The forecast contained medium-term main (10 days) and long-term approximate (30 days) forecasts of the most important indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in this country, starting from October 31st.

Today we present the results of evaluating the accuracy of the 20-day component of this forecast (see Tables 1–2, and Fig. 1–11).

Table 1 shows the calculated and actual values of the main cumulative indicators…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

07/12/2020. No F-278.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/213119106997659

This monitor devoted to examining the results of accuracy assessing 14-day forecast component of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia, compiled according to statistical data inclusive November 22, for 7 and 28 days, starting from November 23, 2020 (see https : //www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/203109591331944).

The results of a quantitative analysis of the 14-day forecast accuracy and degree of its compliance with the actual data are showing in Table. 1–3.

Table 1 contains the calculated and actual values of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

06/12/2020. No F-277.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/212407330402170

The forecast of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine for the period from December 7 to December 13 (the main short-term forecast) and to January 3, 2021 (an approximate medium-term 4-week forecast) was compiled basis on official statistics, available on December 6, using a set of models of epidemics development designed by us.

This forecast drawn up at a time when there were obvious signs of some positive shifts of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Ukraine. In the near future, it will become clear…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

06/12/2020. No F-276.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/212110107098559

This monitor devoted to the accuracy analysis of the weekly MS consensus forecast component, compiled for the period from November 30 to December 06, 2020. Forecast was published in the FB on November 29, 2020 (https://www.facebook.com/ ab.alyokhin / posts / 207358754240361) and on the website of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine with the presentation of the forecast in quantitative (tabular) form November 30 (http://www.nas.gov.ua/UA/Messages/Pages/View.aspx?MessageID = 7208).

The MC consensus forecast is an averaging of partial forecasts obtained using various models and techniques used by…


(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

26/11/2020. S-No 171.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/211288100514093

After a two-week break, we are publishing another statistical monitor with country ratings according to the IP progress indicator level. This frequency is due to the inertia of the indicators of short-term changes in the IP indicator, even in the context of the active development of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the countries we tracked as of December 4, 2020 is showing in Fig. …

IMPEER of the NAS of Ukraine

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

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