A mathematical model and forecast for the coronavirus disease COVID-19 in Russia

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Forecast Monitor

07/12/2020. No F-278.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/213119106997659

This monitor devoted to examining the results of accuracy assessing 14-day forecast component of the COVID-19 epidemic development in Russia, compiled according to statistical data inclusive November 22, for 7 and 28 days, starting from November 23, 2020 (see https : //www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/203109591331944).

The results of a quantitative analysis of the 14-day forecast accuracy and degree of its compliance with the actual data are showing in Table. 1–3.

Table 1 contains the calculated and actual values of the main cumulative indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia, such as the absolute (AE) and relative (PE) errors of daily forecasts, the mean absolute error (MAE) and the average absolute percentage error (MAPE), including the same cumulative assessment of MAPE.

In this table, color highlighting applied to the exceptional forecast accuracy of the total number of deaths, the probability of which is extremely small.

Table 2 shows the same data for similar daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia.

Table 3 shows the same data for case fatality rates I (TC), I (CC), SR0, and IP progress indicator.

As the data in these tables show, the accuracy of forecasting all the main indicators of the epidemic after the second forecast week is still very high.

Thus, the average absolute errors in percentages of the forecast of cumulative indicators of the epidemic (MAPE) fixed at the following level (see Table 1):

- total number of infected people — 0.20%;

- total number of deaths — 0.05%;

- total number of recovered — 1.04%;

- number of active cases — 3.01%.

The mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) in forecasting the main daily indicators of the epidemic are also small (see Table 2):

- total number of infected people — 3.54%;

- total number of deaths — 4.15%;

- total number of recovered — 11.80%.

Estimates of the forecasting accuracy of derived synthetic indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia, such as mortality indices I (TC), I (CC) and the IP progress indicator, for these indicators are as shown in Table. 3:

- mortality rate I (TC) — 0.17%;

- mortality rate I (CC) — 0.97%;

- IP progress indicator — 0.81%;

Compared to the estimates of the 7-day component (https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/207894994186737), forecast errors are gradually accumulating, but remain at a very low level.

The Fig. 1–4 indicate:

- actual trajectories of the main indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia over the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period.

The diagrams in Fig. 5–8 presented:

- actual trajectories of changes in daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia for the entire observation period, including the forecast period;

- calculated trajectories of these indicators for the forecast period.

Diagrams Fig. 9–12 reflect:

- actual trajectories of lethality indicators I (TC) and I (CC), statistical reproductive number SR0 and IP progress indicator for the entire observation period;

- calculated trajectories of the indicators for the forecast period.

On all these charts, the actual data of the pre-forecast period highlighted in green, and the actual data of the forecast period highlighted in red, which allows you to demonstrate clearly the level of discrepancy between the actual and calculated data within the forecast period.

The high level of accuracy of the 2-week forecast indicates that the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Russia continues to follow unchanging negative trends. The statistics show no signs of an improvement in the situation, which together indicates that there is no effective impact on the parties of those who are obliged to ensure the protection of the life and health of their citizens. As in the case of the epidemic in the United States, this indicates the inability of the authorities to plan and implement effective quarantine measures, and the rate in the fight against coronavirus placed on technological tools — the development of a vaccine and vaccination of the population. However, there are big doubts that they will help those who did not wait for them.

In general, taking into account the degree of compliance of the actual data with the calculated ones, the analyzed forecast can considered as retaining its relevance for the next forecast week.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/1074447342317644’’

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine