Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

3 min readDec 12, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

12/12/2020. S-No 173.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/216311653345071

After a week’s break, we present another statistical monitor with ratings of a key countries number according to the level of the IP progress indicator. This frequency is due to the inertia of the short-term changes indicators in the IP indicator, even in the context of the active COVID-19 pandemic development.

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However, first we will give arguments (see screenshots of the NSDC website) why Turkey excluded from our monitor.

As the first screen shows, in the NSDC database, as of December 10, the total number of infected people in Turkey was 955,766 people. Today (see the second screen) this database already contains the number 1 780 673 people. In the database of our main source, Woldometers (a link to it is placed at the end of each monitor), data for the entire observation period has already been changed.

As you can see, there are no fools in the NSDC update the database following organizations that are not able to maintain state medical statistics in good faith and in quality. Moreover, there are no fools in our Working Group, which (not for the first time in relation to other countries) decided to exclude Turkey from further monitoring and analysis.

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The dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the countries that we continue to track, as of December 11, 2020, is showing in Fig. 1.

The situation has changed little over the past week. China still keeps the spread, or rather non-proliferation, of the coronavirus under control. Countries that had an upward trend in the progress indicator (ex. Germany and Italy) maintained this trend.

The countries that demonstrated this trend a week ago (USA, France, Japan, etc.) also retained the trend towards almost zero growth of this indicator.

Only South Korea stopped the downtrend (Fig. 1.2).

However, all countries failed to demonstrate a downward trend in the number of new infections. Moreover, if China, in which the daily number of new cases rarely exceeds two dozen people, can be proud of this, other countries demonstrate a lack of will and / or ability to reverse the negative trends in the dynamics of this indicator by effectively countering the spread of the disease.

It is not surprising, therefore, that the leaders in the rating of short-term changes (Fig. 2) retain their leading positions solely due to a favorable ratio of new infected and new recovered, and not due to a decrease in the number of new infections. The outsiders of this rating cannot even boast of this.

A particularly conscientious Covid-patient has recently started in Ukraine. As the number of available beds declines and the number of active cases grows rapidly, it shows an accelerated rate of recovery, providing statistics favorable to officials. Apparently, our people love officials, but not everything is in their power (see Fig. 3 with the ratings of countries in terms of the indicator level of progress in general). This rating clearly shows the correlation between the forces of the coronavirus on the one hand, and the authorities and Ukraine citizens in countering it, on the other.

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts: