Ukraine vs Netherlands: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
23/08/2020. S-No 145.
At media, in the speeches of persons burdened with high positions, as well as persons with great opportunities to public express their opinion, with elements of pride for the state, people and national medicine, noted that Ukraine has one of the lowest mortality rates among coronavirus patients.
In our statistical and forecast monitors, we always provide graphs characterizing the dynamics of mortality rates in Ukraine and in other countries of the world. Indeed, in Ukraine these indicators are not as tragic as in a number of countries, including our many neighbors in Europe.
As researchers, we were naturally interested in the question of whether there is a subject for pride, and whether there are grounds for statements such as “God, fate had mercy on Ukraine”.
To clarify this situation, we carried out a short comparison of the situation in Ukraine and Holland, which provides wide access to its statistical databases to everyone. In both cases, we used data from the Ministry of Health of both countries as of mid-August 2020.
We will begin our presentation of interesting facts with publicly available indicators.
The total number of infected as of August 22, 2020:
- Ukraine: 102,971 people;
- Holland: 66 097 people.
Total number of deaths:
- Ukraine: 2,244 people;
- Holland: 6 200 people.
In the Netherlands, at the beginning of the year, the population was 17.3 million.
We invite everyone to find the official data on the population of Ukraine on their own, but at the same time are not carry away, so that it does not become for the one who carried away by the business of his entire remaining life.
Mortality rate I (TC), calculated by the number of infected:
- Ukraine: 2.18%;
- Holland: 9.38% people
The differences are impressive.
It well knows that the high mortality rate from coronavirus disease in Western European countries is due to the age structure of the population, among which there are high percentage of elderly citizens who are in good physical shape and lead an active lifestyle. Elderly people are especially at risk of infection with the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, and the mortality rate among COVID-19 patients in this age group is significantly higher than for young and middle-aged people.
In this regard, the first thing we did was to determine the mortality rate among patients of older age categories, patients aged 70 and older.
Below are the values of such indicators for this age group, such as the total number of infected and deaths, as well as the mortality rate:
- Ukraine: 7 793 people; 836 people; 10.73%;
- Holland: 18 250 people; 5 476 people; 30.01%.
The differences remain impressive.
Now let us look at the same metrics for the age categories 0 to 69.
- Ukraine: 80 079 people; 1175 people; 1.47%;
- Holland: 42 740 people; 650 people; 1.52%.
The same for the age categories from 20 to 69 years old.
- Ukraine: 72 949 people; 1169 people; 1.60%;
- Holland: 42 328 people; 650 people; 1.54%.
In fact, and in another case, there are practically no differences.
However, there are differences in the proportion of those infected between the ages of 20 and 69:
- Ukraine: 83.02%;
As you can see, in the total number of infected people, the share of infected people of working age in Ukraine is significantly higher.
Based on the above mortality rates among patients under 69 years of age, it can be conclude that the level of medical care in both countries in terms of the result is practically the same. Moreover, this is despite the incomparable level of medicine in Ukraine and Holland. After all, it is difficult to assume that the many times lower mortality rate among elderly coronavirus patients in Ukraine is the result of the superiority of Ukrainian medicine precisely in caring for elderly patients.
Now let us turn to the diagrams shown in Fig. 1 fig. 2.
These charts show monthly data. Moreover, both in Ukraine and in Holland for August, data are given as of August 13 and 17, respectively, i.e., practically, for the first half of the month.
As you can see, the peak of the infected older age categories in Holland fell on the first months of the epidemic. In addition, this is understandable given the mobility of Dutch retirees and their tourist activity.
Those months made a decisive contribution to the mortality rates in this country. In further, Netherlands, recommendations for the protection of the elderly adopted, which accepted for implementation by the overwhelming majority of elderly Dutch citizens without any coercion.
The effect of this was amazing (Fig. 1). The number of elderly infected citizens has decreased by almost 20 times. The number of deaths (Fig. 2) is many tens of times.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine, despite timely measures taken at the legislative level concerning, inter alia, the protection of the elderly population, the number of infects people aged 70 and over is steadily growing, and the number of deaths in this age category is steadily growing. At the same time, the ratio of new infected and dead is already.
Despite the fact that the question of “graces from above” in relation to Ukraine and its population is still open for us, we believe that only a comparative in-depth analysis and not operation (even skillful from the point of view of juggling art) can bring the final clarity into this question.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: