Ukraine: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
13/08/2020. No 139.
This monitor is devoted to the analysis of statistics, characterizing the development of the epidemiological situation in Ukraine for the entire observation period to date (August 13, 2020).
Diagram fig. 1 reflects the dynamics of the main indicators of the epidemic: the total number of infected (Total Cases), deaths (Deaths), recovered (Recovered) and closed cases (Active Cases).
All of these indicators show stable growth trends, including the number of active cases, which experienced two periods of stabilization during the development of the epidemic.
Thus, the graphs in Fig. 1 continues to demonstrate the inability of all participants in the process to contain the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine.
This conclusion is confirm by the diagram in Fig. 2, which shows the trajectories of normalized average absolute increases in the main indicators of the epidemic, i.e. indicators reduced to a comparable form.
This chart shows that the average absolute increase in the number of infections and deaths is also on a steady upward trend. The average absolute increase in the number of people who recovered periodically stabilizes, and then continues to grow again. Now this indicator is in a phase of decline. Due to this behavior of this indicator, the value of the average absolute increase in the number of active cases changes in antiphase. As a result, the number of active cases (current patients) in the country is increasing.
Dynamics of daily indicators presented in Fig. 3–6 confirms what has been saying. All daily indicators show negative trends: daily increases in the number of infected, deaths, and the number of active cases are growing, while those who recovered are decreasing.
Additional confirmation of these statements is providing by the diagram in Fig. 7, which shows the trajectories of the above daily indicators in logarithmic form. The logarithmic form of these indicators makes sense of the growth rate.
As you can see, the growth rate of the recovered began to lag behind the growth rate of the number of infect, the growth rate of the number of deaths is increasing. As a result, the epidemic and its scale continue to grow.
Diagrams Fig. 8–9 also indicates the continued spread of the coronavirus in Ukraine.
In Fig. 8 shows the dynamics of the growth rate of the number of infected. As you can see, the growth rate has been consistently above 1.00 for many months.
In Fig. 9 shows the dynamics of the statistical analogue of the reproductive number (in general for the entire observation period, Fig. 9a, and over the last 40 days, Fig. 9b), calculated using our own method. This indicator is a modification of the indicator of the growth rate of the daily increase in the number of infected. Its values are also higher than one, which means expanded reproduction of the epidemic.
The dynamics of the IP progress indicator level (Fig. 10) is completely predetermined by the dynamics of the total number of infected and closed cases and is largely determined by the dynamics of the number of recovered cases in Ukraine (see Fig. 2, green curve). This is a sign of poor quality of progress, due to the similarity in the rate of growth in the number of recoveries and the number of those infected. A sign of “qualitative” progress is an increase in the level of the progress indicator due to the stabilization of the number of infected against the background of an increase in the number of closed cases and, first of all, the number of recovered cases in the structure of closed cases. However, even the sources of low-quality “progress” in Ukraine have been exhausting.
“Low” values of mortality rates (Fig. 10) can “reassure” perhaps soulless statisticians, and then only in comparison with countries in which the situation is even worse. The true mortality rate now ranges from 2.31% to 4.13%.
What does it mean? This means that every 43rd infected person dies (lethality indicator I (TC), and among closed cases (in the sum of those who have already recovered and died), every 25th patient is dead (lethality indicator I (AC)).
Unlike the government and citizens of Ukraine, on whom the spread of the coronavirus in the country depends, we can only look for (statistical) signs of an improvement in the epidemiological situation. We can, we are looking, but we have not found it yet.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: