Ukraine: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

20/08/2020. S-No 143.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/173947184248185

This monitor is devoted to the analysis of statistics development characterizing the epidemiological situation in Ukraine for the entire observation period to date (August 20, 2020).

The diagram in Fig. 1 reflects the dynamics of the main epidemic indicators: total number of infected (Total Cases), deaths (Deaths), recovered (Recovered) and closed cases (Active Cases). All these indicators show active growth, which indicates the inability of all participants to counteract the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine.

The diagram in Fig. 2, which shows the trajectories of normalized average absolute increases in the main indicators of the epidemic, i.e. indicators, reduced to a comparable form, clarifies the general situation.

Once again, the absolute average increase in those who recovered shows a (negative) downward trend, and the increase in active cases shows a negative upward trend. The average absolute increase in the number of infected and deaths has a steady growth trend.

The dynamics of all daily indicators presented in Fig. 3–6 is also negative and the trends are frightening. If they persist in the near future, the corresponding actual (statistical) data will also be frightening.

This is also confirm by the graphs shown in Fig. 7–9.

Fig. 7 shows the trajectories of the above daily indicators in logarithmic form, which has a meaning of growth rate. As you can see, the growth rate of recovered lately has increased the lag behind growth rate of the number of infected, and the rate of growth in the number of deaths has begun to increase.

This is also indicate by the growth rate of the total number of infected (Fig. 8), which is very high. Its level on August 20-th is 1.13.

Figure 9 shows the dynamics of the statistical reproductive number (in general for the entire observation period, Fig. 9a, and for the last 30 days, Fig. 9b), calculated by our own method. This indicator is a modification of the indicator of the growth rate of the daily increase in the number of infected. Its values are significantly higher than one, which also indicates an active phase of the epidemic’s growth.

All this taken together testifies to the intensification of negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine and its growth.

The dynamics of the IP progress indicator level (Fig. 10) is determined by the dynamics of the total number of infected and closed cases, and largely now in Ukraine. If earlier we pointed out the low quality of growth of the progress indicator, then recently the level of this indicator has frankly gone down.

“Low” from the point of view soulless statistics, the values of mortality rates (Fig. 10) have become a source of pride for domestic medicine among its leaders. Also for some “prominent” (thanks to the media and high positions) personalities allow them to make statements, the essence of which boils down to the fact that God is in in this respect he had mercy on Ukraine. We conducted an in-depth analysis of these indicators, the results of which show that there is generally nothing to be proud of, just as there is no particular reason to talk about any favors from above. We plan to provide a brief overview of these results in the coming days.

In the meantime, we will have to confine ourselves to the picture that manifests itself in dry, publicly available numbers, which, with its joylessness, as if calls upon at least the citizens themselves to think about where the most ordinary non-observance of the simplest well-known rules of countering the spread of coronavirus can lead us.

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Note.

The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used exclusively to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine