Ukraine: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
16/07/2020. No 121.
Today we will continue to formulate a more detailed statistical picture of the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine, adding to the list of diagrams presented with graphs of other statistical indicators.
The first three diagrams (Fig. 1–3) characterize the general properties of the epidemic. This is the dynamics of the main indicators of the epidemic: the total number of infected, dead, recovered and active patients (Fig. 1); mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) and the progress indicator IR (Fig. 2); statistical reproductive number R0 (Fig. 3 for the entire observation period, Fig. 3 ‘for the last 30 days).
Based on these graphs, we can conclude the following.
- The number of infected in Ukraine is growing rapidly (Fig. 1)
- The number of deaths is also growing steadily (Fig. 1).
- The number of convalescent people is growing rapidly, and literal in one day (July 8, 2020) this growth accelerated significantly (Fig. 1).
- The number of active patients, starting from the same date (see Fig. 1), has stabilized.
- The values of the progress indicator IP responds positively (see Fig. 2) to the rapid increase in the number of closed cases (sum of recovered and deceased).
- The convergence of the trajectories of mortality rates (Fig. 2) is extremely slow. This is a negative trend, since the coincidence of the values of these indicators of mortality indicates the end of the epidemic.
- The level of the reproductive number (Fig. 3 and Fig. 3 ‘) is very high (at the level of 1.00) and indicates the self-reproduction of the number of infected people from day to day, which accounts for the rapid increase in the total number of infected people mentioned.
Diagrams fig. 4, 5 give an idea of the growth rate of the number of infected, which is the driver of the epidemic. As the diagram in fig. 4 and its monthly variant in fig. 4 ‘, the growth rate is higher than 1.00, which, like the reproductive number R0, indicates a rapid increase in the total number of infected people, shown in Fig. 1.
The average absolute growth rate of this indicator is showing in Fig. 5. The level of this indicator is also very high.
Daily indicators of the development of the epidemic are shown in Fig. 6–10. New among them is Fig. 6, which represents the dynamics of the growth of the indicators presented in Fig. 1 (except for the indicator of the number of active patients, which is derived from the first three), in logarithmic form.
In this form, these charts characterize to a certain extent the growth rate of the main indicators of the epidemic in a comparable form, i.e. in their content are close to daily indicators, which also reflect the similar properties of the epidemic.
As can be seen from these diagrams, on July 8 (this date may well qualify for a new date for celebrating the day of the medical worker of Ukraine). The growth rate of the number of convalescent people went up rapidly, caught up with the growth rate of the number of infected people and has since kept on the same level with him. The reason for this phenomenon is not yet clear to us, but the phenomenon itself is definitely pleasing.
All this in aggregate is also confirmed by diagrams 7–10, which demonstrate some stabilization of the daily values of the number of infected and deceased (Fig. 7 and Fig. 8), a rapid increase in the daily number of convalesced people (Fig. 9) and the consequent rapid decrease in the increase in the number of active patients.
In general, statistics do not show signs of a turning point in the development of the epidemic of coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine, which does not allow us to assess the situation in the country as positive. In fact, it is difficult to recognize as positive the transition of the coronavirus epidemic in the country into the chronic phase, into a constantly acting factor in the life of our society.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and dead.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to sufficient informative reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: