Israel vs France: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readOct 25, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

23/10/2020. S-No 167.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/192014765774760

Today we will compare two fundamentally different approaches to countering the second wave of infection spread. The objects of analysis in this comparison are the COVID-19 epidemics in Israel and France. In both countries, the number of new infections during the second wave significantly exceeded the level of the first outbreak.

In Fig. 1a shows the trajectories of the following indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in Israel:

- total number of infected (TC);

- total number of recovered (R);

- number of active cases (current patients) (AC).

In Fig. 1b depicts the trajectory of the total deaths (D).

The diagrams divided into two figures due to the different scales of the respective indicators.

In Fig. 2a and Fig. 2b respectively shows the trajectory of the IP progress indicator and the case fatality rates I (TC) and I (CC).

Similar diagrams for France have the same numbering, but without subdivisions in Fig. “a” and “b”.

The diagrams in Fig. Figures 3–6 show the actual trajectories of the following daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic:

- an increase in the number of infected;

- an increase in the number of deaths;

- an increase in the number of recovered;

- an increase in the number of active cases

Consider the diagram in Fig. 1 for France. It is clearly visible on:

- rapid increase in the total number of infected and active cases during the second wave;

- preservation of the previous (moderate) tendencies of growth in the number of recovered and deaths.

We pay special attention to the latter circumstance.

Diagrams Fig. 2 indicate the following.

The case-closed I (CC) case-fatality rate continues to decline in France. This is a positive trend. The mortality rate for the infected number I (TC), due to the rapid increase in the number of infected naturally decreases. This is a negative trend. A negative (downward) trend of the IP progress indicator is a consequence of the low growth rates of the recovered number amid a rapid increase in the number of infected.

In Israel, the rapid increase in the number of infected, in contrast to France, accompanied by such a rapid increase in the number of recovered (Fig.1a). This made it possible to interrupt the growing trend in the number of active cases. However, the country has seen a rapid increase in the number of deaths (Figure 1b). Over the past three months, the number of deaths in Israel has increased more than 7 times, and this is in a country with a very low mortality rate. This phenomenon is due to an exceptionally rapid increase in the total number of infected.

With a high number of closed cases (due to an increase in the number of recoveries and deaths), as well as a decrease in the number of infections, after each outbreak, Israel is able to interrupt the negative downward trend of the progress indicator (Fig.2a).

The dynamics of both mortality rates is also stable, which, however, as we noted above, in the context of the second epidemic wave, could not prevent an extremely negative trend of a rapid increase in the total number of deaths.

Let us move on to considering daily indicators (Fig. 3–6).

In France, we see a rampant increase in the daily increase in the number of infected (Fig. 3) and the number of active cases (Fig. 6), a slight increase in the daily increase in the number of deaths (Fig. 4) and recovered (Fig. 5).

The picture in Israel is different.

After a quite natural period of time (time lag) after the introduction of strict quarantine measures, the second wave of the epidemic quickly began to decline (Fig. 3). The indicator of the daily increase in active cases also reacted to this (Fig. 6). Unfortunately, Israel did not manage to avoid a significant daily increase in deaths (Fig. 4). The nature of such a rapid increase in the daily rate of those who recovered (Fig. 5) is unknown to us and needs special study.

A number of important consequences follow from the above statistical data, which are especially relevant for Ukraine.

1. Even with a low mortality rate and a high level of health care, a large number of new cases are inevitably accompanying by a proportionally large number of new deaths.

2. At this stage in the development of the pandemic, the only effective tool is to contain the spread of the coronavirus through strict quarantine measures.

3. The increase in hospital beds will never be able to keep up with the uncontrolled growth of the infected, cannot prevent the growth of the number of deaths and can only save from the additional number of deaths caused by the inability to provide adequate medical care to Covid patients. The latter, however, is inevitable when hospitals are overcrowded.

Apparently, in Ukraine share these conclusions.

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts: