Israel: Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readSep 30, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

30/09/2020. S-No 163.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/185196516456585\

Graphically catastrophe stuation can be representing and probably look like in Fig. 1–4. Indeed, what has happened in Israel over the past three months can hardly be called a catastrophe.

The diagram in Fig. 1a shows the trajectories of the following epidemic indicators:

- total number of infected (TC);

- total number of recovered (R);

Is the number of active cases (current patients) (AC).

The diagram in Fig. 1b depicts the trajectory of the total deaths (D).

As you can see from the diagrams in Fig. 1, all major indicators of the epidemic are growing uncontrollably. We will pay attention to what is extremely important for Ukraine.

The mortality rate (Fig. 2b) in Israel is very low, ranging from 0.64% (I (TC)) to 0.90% (I (CC)).

The Ukrainian society is constantly being brainwashed by the fact that Ukraine has one of the lowest mortality rates. At the same time, they prefer to use the smaller I (TC) indicator, which is methodologically incorrect. We have written about this more than once. In fact, the mortality rate (in closed cases) from COVID-19 in Ukraine exceeds the global average.

In Israel, unlike in Ukraine, the mortality rate is really very low. However, one must be aware that the mortality rate for closed cases shows what percentage of patients inevitably dies. The greater the totals number of patients, the greater the number of deaths at a constant mortality rate. And it is completely immoral in this case to trump a small percentage.

The diagram in Fig. 1b shows that as early as June 30, 2020, there were only 320 deaths in Israel. On September 29th, i.e. after three months, the number of deaths increased by almost 5 times. And this is at a very low and constantly decreasing mortality rate, and this happened solely due to the increase in the number of infected.

In Ukraine today, the mortality rate for closed cases is 4.28%. The strategy to expand the bed capacity, adopted in Ukraine, means nothing more than a death sentence for each (approximately) 25 of the infected. What consequences in absolute terms can lead to the continuing record growth in the number of infected is showing by Israel, in which the mortality rate is more than 4 times lower than in Ukraine.

The diagrams in Fig. 3–6 show the trajectories of the daily rates of the COVID-19 epidemic in Israel.

What was called the first wave of the spread of coronavirus (see Fig. 3), against the background of the second wave, it is even difficult to see on the graph. The second wave of the dead (Fig. 4) and recovered (Fig. 5) is an arithmetic consequence of the surge in the number of infected. (We remember that the recovered, like the deceased, make up a fraction of the number of closed cases, and their number in absolute terms inevitably increases with the number of infected people with a certain time lag.)

Ukrainian medical officials and this arithmetic fact (the growing daily increase in the number of recovered people) manage to pass off as the achievements of domestic medicine.

Such a catastrophic course of the epidemic in Israel was reflected in the trajectory of changes in the IP progress indicator in this country (Fig. 2a). The second rise in the level of this indicator was caused solely by an increase in the number of recovered, but not by a decrease in the number of infected, which can only indicate the transition of the epidemic to the final stage.

In general, the development of the COVID-19 epidemic in Israel is a tragic example of ignorance the obvious fact can lead to: only decisive opposition to the spread of infection can stop the increase in the number of deaths.

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)