Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, O.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical Monitor
05/29/2020. No 71.
We continue to publish the index of progress IP of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 28, 2020.
Not all of the countries we tracked over the past day have shown positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–4). Iran, Spain and South Korea did not cope with this task. Brazil, which openly ignores the threat of coronavirus, only due to the large number of recoveries, against the background of a record high number of new infections (24,151 people for May 28, 2020), provided a slight increase in the value of the progress indicator.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change and, as of May 28, 2020, remained at 5.58% and 5.59%, respectively. The value of the progress indicator IP in this country after a long break increased slightly again and reached the level of 99.91% against 90.90% in the previous days.
The coronavirus epidemic in South Korea has taken another step back. Over the past day, the value of the progress indicator in this country decreased from the level of 93.78% to 93.52%. This is a direct result of the relaxation of quarantine. Germany also took a small step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased from the level of 94.19% to the level of 94.15%.
The ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world as a whole is shown in the diagram in Fig. 5. Over the past day, Italy has bypassed Spain (Spain, like South Korea, is unable to weaken the rigidity of quarantine measures without loss). Brazil has risen two steps up, which is most likely due to the physical health of the nation. Ukraine was ahead of Russia in the ranking, which was also achieved due to the large increase in the number of people recovering, against the backdrop of an equally large increase in the number of new infections.
Diagram 6 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and the progress indicator IP we proposed. The diagrams in Fig. 7–10 show the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in Ukraine to date.
As can be seen (see Fig. 7), in Ukraine it is too early to talk about the formation of a peak in the daily number of diseases.
In this issue, we once again publish charts on the coronavirus epidemic in South Korea similar to charts 6–10 in Ukraine (see Fig. 11–15). As you know, this country is one of the leaders in quickly curbing the epidemic. However, as follows from the statistics of the last days, see fig. 12, quarantine relief is not easy for this country either. What can we say about countries that initially with great difficulty took control of the course of the development of the coronavirus epidemic?
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the progress indicator IP for all countries of the world, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries. Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the epidemic progress index IP and spacing them into different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both WHO fatality rates should be equal.
Fatality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.
Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088