Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
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(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Statistical Monitor
21/06/2020. No 94.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 20, 2020.
Over the past reporting day, epidemics in Germany, Israel, China, Ukraine, France and South Korea did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, with the exception of Ukraine, in which the epidemic was never taking under effective control, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are connecting with the difficulties of going through the phase of easing the quarantine regime.
The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.
In China, the mortality rate I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.56% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and reached 99.63% (it was 99.65% a day earlier)
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased (4.69% versus 4.70%, this is a consequence of a significant number of new infections), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (4.88% versus 4.89%). the value of the IP progress indicator continued to fall (95.05% versus 96.17% a day earlier).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has taken another step forward towards the final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 95.78% against 95.51% in the previous day. The mortality rate I (TC) increased to 5.35% (the day before it was 5.27%). The mortality rate I (CC) increased and reached 5.59% compared to 5.52% in the previous reporting day. This was the result of an unprecedentedly large number of deaths in one day for the entire last period.
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in it has not changed.
In the diagrams of Fig. 5–9, the main daily indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Ukraine are present.
The most important indicators of the epidemic (see Fig. 6, 7) continue to show negative dynamics, overcoming of which is possible only by adopting adequate (well-known in the world) quarantine measures and strict compliance with them.
Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
