Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

19/06/2020. No 92.

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 18, 2020.

Over the past day, epidemics in Germany, Israel, China, the United States, France, and South Korea did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).

In these countries, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with difficulties in going through the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. Ukraine escaped this fate solely due to the high growth rate of closed cases, i.e. daily growth of both recovered and deceased (see Fig. 7, 8 and the block on Ukraine below).

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4.

The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) per day decreased (5.56% versus 5.57%), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (5.58%), the value of the IP progress indicator fell again, reaching 99, 68% against 99.70%.

In Germany, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (4.71% and 4.89%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator fell to 96.28% against 99.32%.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has stepped forward towards the final state. The value of the indicator of the progress of the epidemic in this country increased to the level of 95.46% against 95.20% in the previous day. At the same time, the mortality rate I (TC) increased to 5.29% (a day earlier it was 5.28%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.01%, reaching 5.54%,

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Brazil after yesterday’s jump in the ranking up two positions again returned to its previous position — one of the last steps in the ranking. In this country, in addition to surprisingly careless attitude to the epidemic of coronavirus, statistics also demonstrate miracles. Regularly in the line of the daily number of people recovered in the statistics of this country appears zero. So it was in the reporting day. Naturally, statistical indicators react quite nervously to this phenomenon.

Miracles in approaches to statistics are demonstrated not only by Brazil. But more about that below.

Diagrams fig. 5–9 which day reflect a significant deterioration in the epidemiological situation in Ukraine, the causes of which, as well as the most likely consequences of this, we have repeatedly noted in our monitors.

Today, these charts eloquently testify to the failure of the so-called “new Strategy” of the Ukrainian government to curb the spread of the epidemic, which replaced the Strategy to reduce the incidence (https://zn.ua/UKRAINE/lyashko-obyavil-o-perehode-ukrainy-k-novoy-strategii-borby -s-covid-19–355389_.html). Let’s hope that only at the first steps.

Today we will also once again repeat the well-known elementary truth: the only mechanism to contain the epidemic of coronavirus in the near future is quarantine, and not on paper, but in action. Manipulating methods for determining the number of people who have recovered (see https://ukranews.com/news/707564-vyzdorovevshih-ot-koronavirusa-v-ukraine-budut-opredelyat-po-novomu) can only achieve the desired statistical portrait of the epidemic, but by no means he’ll change it himself, which V. Lyashko doesn’t hide either (quote: “According to Lyashko, an increase in the number of people recovering is expected due to the indicated change in the approach to the criteria for determining them.”)

In the field of image processing, such techniques are called retouching, and in the field of statistics, they have been known since prehistoric times.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “ average ” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine