Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
30/07/2020. No 130.
According to the official statistics as of July 29, 2020, the trajectories of the IP progress indicator values for the countries that are included in the list of countries monitored by us are as shown in Fig. 1–3.
The changes that have occurred since our previous review are illustrated by the diagram in Fig. 4.
The greatest “progress” in three days was shown by Israel, Brazil and the United States. However, understanding the content of the IP progress indicator makes it possible to assess how such seemingly positive results were obtained.
During the reporting period, in the context of a huge influx of new patients (6343 people), Israel vacated a significant number of beds in hospitals, showing the number of recovered at the level of 5721 people, which predetermined the growth of the progress indicator.
For the same reasons, the value of the progress indicator has grown for the epidemics in Brazil and the United States.
At the other end of the ranking are countries that at one time reached a high level of epidemic control. These are Germany, Italy, China, France and Japan. In these countries, a second wave is forming, caused by the weakening of quarantine.
The stability of the trends in the development of epidemics in countries with different levels of control over the epidemic also determines the constancy of their position in the final ranking (Fig. 5), which has not changed over the past three days.
In general, all this indicates that the pandemic is gaining momentum, affecting those countries that, in the first phase of the epidemic’s development, demonstrated the ability to manage ongoing processes.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the process of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: