Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
09/08/2020. No 136.
According to the statistics as of August 8, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the countries monitored by us is as shown in Fig. 1–3.
Israel continues to show high growth rates of new infections (at about 1,500 people per day) and equally high growth rates in the number of recovered. This allowed Israel in recent days to significantly correcting the trajectory of the progress indicator, which, however, does not in any way reflecting the complete lack of progress in this country in terms of containing the spread of coronavirus. In the same way, Japan stopped the collapse of the level of the progress indicator.
Both of these countries show how, in a pandemic, it is easy to transform from countries from which you could learn how to deal with the coronavirus to countries that can be examples of how not to relax quarantine conditions.
Changes in the values of the progress indicator over the past two days are showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.
Among the leaders of this rating, Russia acts on the same principle as Israel and Japan. Therefore, it is not yet necessary to say that there are qualitative changes for the better in this country.
South Korea, one of the few countries we are monitoring, does not allow the coronavirus to noticeable intensive again after taming the epidemic. The level of the progress indicator in this country is growing, due to the excess of the number of recovered over the consistently low (even by the standards of this country) number of new infections.
Countries at the opposite end of the rankings are having difficulty easing quarantines and are rolling back in terms of this indicator. These are Brazil, Germany, Italy, and Ukraine, which in recent days allowed higher growth rates of new infections compared to the number of recovered.
The stability (both positive and negative) trends in the development of epidemics in the countries we tracked determines a certain stability of the overall ranking of these countries (Fig. 5), which has not undergone significant changes for several weeks.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the process of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: