Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

IMPEER of the NAS of Ukraine

2 min readOct 9, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

06/10/2020. S-No 165.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin

The dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the tracked countries on October 5, 2020 is showing in Fig. 1.

Since publication of the previous statistical monitor over passed 6 days, in monitored countries the trends in the progress indicator practically not changed, which confirms the prevailing opinion in the world that the COVID-19 pandemic as a whole is developing out of control.

All countries that demonstrate an increase in this indicator achieve this place not by decrease in the number of new infections, but due to the difference in the rates of infected, deaths and recovered number. South Korea is the only exception, where the second wave of the coronavirus spread is under control.

This also applies to the leader of the rating of short-term (for 6 days) changes in the progress indicator (Fig. 2) — Israel. In this country, in recent days, there has been a very large number of recovered, which predetermines the growth of the level of the progress indicator.

The stability of negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 pandemic for a long time determines the stability of the overall ranking countries in the level of progress, without noticeable changes.

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts: