Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readJun 24, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

24/06/2020. No 97.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/155184962791074

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 23, 2020.

Over the past reporting day, the epidemics in Germany, Israel, China, the United States, Ukraine, France and South Korea did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).

In these countries, with the exception of Ukraine, in which the epidemic was not initially taken under effective control, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the weakening phase of the quarantine regime.

The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.56% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and fell to 99.57% (99.58% a day earlier).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) continued to decline and reached 4.66% versus 4.67%, which was the result of a significant number of new infections), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.87%), and the value of the IP progress indicator continued to fall (95.80% against 95.91% a day earlier).

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan, after some retreat in its development, took a step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to 95.54% against 95.37% in the previous reporting day. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (5.32%), and the value of the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased (5.56% against 5.58%).

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in it has not changed.

In the diagrams Fig. 5–9 show the main daily indicators of the COVID-19 epidemic in the United States instead of the similar epidemic indicators in Ukraine, which as of June 23 were examined in yesterday’s statistical monitor.

An analysis of these diagrams indicates a significant similarity in the nature of the development of the coronavirus epidemic in both countries. This is the rare case when Ukraine, by the development of the situation, and by rating, is next to the world leader United States. The only sad thing is that this is anti-rating. However, such is the fate of those countries that cannot control the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19, and in which, as a result, the trends in the main indicators of the epidemic are negative.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)