Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
15/09/2020. S-No 157.
As of September 14, 2020, negative trends of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic development generally remain (see Fig. 1–4).
In the group of leaders in short-term rating are changes (Fig. 5). South Korea, Brazil and the United States retained their positions over the past three days. In all these countries, with a relatively stable, but very high, increase in the number of infected, there was a higher increase in those who recovered, which contributed to an increase in the progress indicator.
The unconditional outsiders of this rating (France, Israel and Ukraine) continued to increase the number of infected people at a record pace, which only strengthened their position at the end of the rating (Fig. 6).
The aerobatics performed by France and Ukraine are well demonstrated by the graphs in Fig. 4. Israel, after a deep fall, went up (see the graph of the dynamics of the level of the progress indicator for this country in Fig. 3) solely due to the large number of recoveries.
As you know, in Israel in recent days, strict quarantine measures have been taking, comparable to those that led to the rapid arrest of the first phase of coronavirus spread. We will closely monitor how effective they are this time around.
For a long time, such local disturbances have not affected the stability of the overall rating (Fig. 5), whose participants are not very active. This position is understandable only in relation to China, which daily records isolated cases of new patients and everyone can envy the number of them (only 145 people as of September 14, 2020).
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken a number of individual countries.
Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases where there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
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Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: