Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

5 min readJul 11, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

10/07/2020. No 113.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/160980688878168

Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 9, 2020.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, France, and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). These are all countries that pursue a policy of easing quarantine and in this regard have some difficulties in moving forward in the development of epidemics.

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day showed the following indicators of the epidemics development.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.54% and 5.57%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.04% (99.57%), due to the significant for China an increase in the number of people who recovered (42 people).

In Germany, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) decreased by 0.01% and 0.02%, respectively, reaching the levels of 4.58% and 4.73%. The value of the IP progress indicator as a result increased (96.75% versus 96.50%), which was facilitated by a large number of people who recovered (900 people) compared with a rather large, but more modest, number of new infections (433 people).

In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) and I (CC) decreased by 0.01% and 0.02%, reaching 14.41% and 15.26%, respectively. The value of the IP progress indicator increased to the level of 94.45% against 94, 39%. This result was made possible due to the excess of the number of recovered (338 people) over the number of new infections (214 people), which has been fluctuating around this level for many days.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.

During the reporting day, Turkey bypassed South Korea and moved into 4th place in our ranking, and Russia (once again) switched places with Brazil, ahead of the last. In this regard, we consider it appropriate to provide a link to an article on the quality of statistics in Russia, to which there have long been claims from Russian and foreign experts (see https://www.svoboda.org/a/30716193.html).

This topic is especially relevant for analysts and forecasters, as they are among the first to encounter the quirks of statistics. This is what determines our brief traditional review of the epidemiological situation in Ukraine according to data not on June 9, 2020, as for other countries, but according to data on June 10 (see charts 5–10).

Obviously abnormal among them is the chart characterizing the dynamics of the daily number of people who have recovered (see Fig. 9). We note that the anomalous nature of the dynamics of the values of the daily index of active cases (Fig. 10) is deriving from the first. This anomaly (an anomaly of all recent days) was also reflecting in the dynamics of the corresponding accumulative indicators, which are presenting in the diagrams of Fig. 5 and fig. 6.

We have repeatedly noted that daily rates are among the most variable. However, as they say, not to the same extent. It is difficult to imagine the achievements of domestic medicine, which would dramatically accelerate the recovery of patients with COVID-19 and, as a result, reduce the daily increase in current patients that have been observing in Ukraine in recent days.

In some strange way, these events coincided in time with the active discussion in the media of the fact that Ukraine was not on the list of countries for which the EU opens borders. Moreover, one of the requirements of the EU is the number of active cases per 100 thousand people, which in Ukraine is significantly higher than the EU established criterion.

In such conditions, the statistical anomaly looks fabricated, having little in common with the real struggle of physicians for the health and life of patients. This assumption is also supported by the constancy of the (negative) dynamics of the number of deaths (see Fig. 8), which is not affected by the alleged discoveries in the field of the fight against coronavirus.

Nevertheless, we do not make any serious conclusions on this subject, since this requires special studies that go beyond our scientific interests and priorities. For us, it is more important that such anomalies make forecasting more exciting and unpredictable, depriving it to some extent of meaning.

___

Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to reflect sufficiently informatively of the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)