Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

3 min readSep 6, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

06/09/2020. S-No 154.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/178545563788347

As of September 5, 2020, negative trends in the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in the countries we tracked and the pandemic as a whole still persist (see Fig. 1–3).

There are few changes in our two ratings, in the rating of changes in two days (Fig. 4), it is such frequency that we now consider the epidemiological situation in the world through the prism of the progress indicator, and in the ranking by the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 5).

During the reporting period, South Korea climbed in the first of these rankings, bringing the number of people recovering each day to the level of new infections. This tactic characterize all the leaders of this rating for a considerable time and does not help to slow the spread of the infection.

Outsiders, lacking such a reserve, openly overwhelm this figure, demonstrating a large influx of new infected. France, Ukraine and Israel have been the most successful in this lately. From time to time, they joined to other countries that once quite successfully coped with the spread of coronavirus.

Not all these gestures affect the overall picture, reflected by the overall rating (Fig. 5). Almost nothing changes in it day by day, which indicates that there are no signs of a fracture in the fight against coronavirus. About 900 thousand people have already paid for such “non-resistance to evil by violence” in the world, and the number of deaths continues to grow steadily (linearly) every day.

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Note.

The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken and a number of individual countries.

Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases of significant differences between them.

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemics development at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the epidemics development of quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)