Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
26/06/2020. No 99.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics for June 25, 2020.
Every day, we observe with concern how many “leaders” (countries with a mature epidemic, that is, an epidemic that is at the final stage of their life cycle) are moving towards a weakening quarantine phase, as well as how a number of countries are experiencing difficulties in curbing the epidemic. From our monitors it is not difficult to understand which group those or other countries that appear in our publications belong to.
So over the past reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Brazil, Israel, Italy, China, the USA, Ukraine, and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).
In these countries, with the exception of Brazil and Ukraine, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. The same is true in relation to the pandemic as a whole, in the development of which there is also a regression.
The three leaders of our rating showed the following results.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.55% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and dropped to 99.55% (99.56% a day earlier).
In Germany, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) decreased and reached respectively 4.65% (against 4.66%), 4.85% (against 4.86%), the value of the IP progress indicator did not change (95.89%).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has again taken a step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to 95.46% against 95.577% in the last reporting day. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) increased slightly (5.35% versus 5.34%), the value of the mortality rate I (CC) also increased (5.60% versus 5.59%).
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. The order of countries in it over the past reporting day has not changed.
Today in the diagrams fig. 5–9, along with the indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine, similar indicators of the epidemic in Brazil, a country where not only citizens demonstrate neglect of danger, but also the President, are adjacent. As far as the nature of the development of the coronavirus epidemic in these countries is similar or different, one can judge the similarity or difference between the main creators of epidemiological statistics.
We will only share some observations.
Fig. 5b shows complete nihilism in Brazil in relation to the epidemic. There is not even a hint of attempts to take the epidemic under control.
The general vector of changes in the main indicators of the epidemic in Brazil and Ukraine (Fig. 6–9) is similar.
We pay attention only to two differences.
In Ukraine, a mild positive effect is seen at the beginning of the first stage of curbing the spread of coronavirus (this effect was clearly manifested only in the dynamics of active cases (see Fig. 9). In Brazil, there is not even that.
In Brazil, the main trends (see Fig. 7b-9b) of the development of the epidemic are statistically unreliable (the level of determination coefficients is extremely low), which may be due to poor organization of statistical accounting of the incidence of coronavirus.
In general, as a comparative visual analysis of these diagrams shows, the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine is not so significantly different in development from the epidemic in Brazil, as we would like. The daily anti-records set by the epidemic in our country also do not contribute to this.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: