Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
23/08/2020. S-No 146.
Over two reporting days, of August 22, 2020, since the release of the previous monitor dedicated to the coronavirus pandemic, the negative nature of the development of the epidemic has not changed (see Fig. 1–3). Moreover, under the onslaught of the coronavirus, more authorities are falling.
Thus, South Korea, which for many months remained a model of the fight against coronavirus, has deprived of our status of “leader” and transferred to the group of “average” (see Fig. 3). It took this country only about two weeks to lose its peak level of the progress indicator (95.68%), which approached for more than 3 months from the current level of 85.15%. This is the level of IP in South Korea was back in April 29-th.
This is a very clear example of how difficult is to achieve an edge in the fight against coronavirus, and how easy is to lose all the advantage if you just relax a little.
The leaders of our current change rankings (see Figure 4) well know, as are their tactics. These are Israel and Japan and Germany that joined in these two days. All of these countries are achieving an increase in the progress indicator due to the higher growth rate of those who have recovered, compared with a very high number of new infections.
The outsiders of this ranking are also well known. These are South Korea, France, Ukraine and Italy. These countries, against the background of a large number of new infections, cannot afford an adequate number of recovered, and therefore the value of the progress indicator for these countries is decreasing.
The consistency of trends in all the countries we track also provides the relative consistency of our main ranking, shown in Fig. 5, which has hardly undergone any significant changes lately.
Judging by the diagram in this figure, as well as the diagram in Fig. 1, we will soon have to re-open the group of “outsiders”, i.e. countries that are sagging under or falling before (to anyone else) the onslaught of the coronavirus.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: