Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
20/09/2020. S-No 159.
On September 19, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the tracked countries looks like showing in Fig. 1–3.
This time we subdivided all the countries according to a different principle. The diagram in Fig. 2 shows countries in general with a positive trend in the progress indicator. In fig. 3 the countries which, figuratively speaking, are in a fever or which frankly cannot cope (from the point of view of the level of the progress indicator) with the challenges of the times.
The second group of countries is certainly of interest (Fig. 3).
France, Israel and Ukraine among them frankly cannot cope with the spread of the coronavirus. The jumps (up) in the level of the progress indicator in Israel are due to the huge number of recovered people, compensating for an unprecedented influx of new infections for this country. In Ukraine, this factor only leads to a slowdown in the fall level of the progress indicator. In France, where this factor does not work at all (there, the daily increase in those who recovered is quite stable for a long time), therefore, under the onslaught of a record large number of new infected, the level of the progress indicator is rapidly decreasing.
Japan and South Korea, while maintaining a high rate of recovery, simultaneously show a slight decrease in the daily increase of new infections. This is how these countries managed to correct the trajectory of the change in the level of the progress indicator.
The countries of the first group manage to contain the spread of coronavirus within the framework of the second wave, not allowing the daily rate of the number of infected to approach the highs of the first phase. However, the growth of the progress indicator in these countries carried out mainly due to some excess of the number of recovered over the still very large number of new infected. In contrast, China is the only country (among our charges) that keeps the spread of the coronavirus under tight control.
In accordance with these tendencies, the country was distributed both in our rating of short-term changes (Fig. 4 shows the changes for two reporting days), as well as in the overall rating by the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 5).
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken and a number of individual countries.
Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases where there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: