Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

3 min readJul 16, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

16/07/2020. No 120.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/162814678694769

According to official statistics, as of July 15, 2020, for the last reporting day of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19, only in Israel and France did not show positive development dynamics (Fig. 1–3).

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day showed the following results of epidemics in their countries.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.54% and 5.56%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.02% (99.66%), due to an excess in the number of convalescing (19 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (6 people).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (4.55%), the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased (4.69% versus 4.70%, this is a positive point), the value of the IP progress indicator has increased (96, 97% vs 96.95%). This was the result of the excess of the number of recovered (500 people) over a sufficiently large number of new infections (486 people).

In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased by 0.01% (14.37%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.03% (15.15%, a positive shift). The value of the IP progress indicator increased to the level of 94.87% (against 94.69%), due to a significant excess of the number of recovered (575 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (162 people).

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.

For the reporting day, the location of countries in the ranking has not changed.

Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and dead.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to sufficient informative reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)