Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readJul 5, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

04/07/2020. No 107.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/158914499084787

Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 03, 2020.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, Ukraine, France, and Japan did not demonstrate positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In these countries, with the exception of Ukraine, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day have changed. Italy entered it, pushing Japan to fourth place. The leading countries showed the following indicators of the development of epidemics.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (5.55%), the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased (5.57% versus 5.58%), the value of the IP progress indicator has increased from 99.50% to 99, 51%.

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.61%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased (4.77% versus 4.79%), the value of the IP progress indicator increased from 96.26% to 96, 48%. These results were achieved due to a significant number of people who recovered (700 people) with a relatively high level (283 people) of new infections.

In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) is at 14.44%, the mortality rate I (CC) is 15.39%, and the IP progress indicator is 93.83%. These results, as in Germany, were achieving due to a significant number of people who recovered during the reporting day (384 people) with a relatively high level (223 people) of new infections.

Thus, all leaders, with the exception of China, demonstrate very high rates of new infections, which is a consequence of the policy of weakening the quarantine regime in these countries.

The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4. The only change in it (among the three leaders) was noting above.

In general, characterizing the situation in the countries and regions of the world that are the objects of our monitoring, it should be noted the persistence of the problems that they have to solve in the fight against coronavirus.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable the dynamics of the epidemic development process of sufficiently informatively reflecting at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)