Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
06/13/2020. No 86.
We continue to publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators for the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, as of official statistics as of June 12, 2020.
Over the past day, epidemics in Brazil, Germany, Israel, China, France and South Korea did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). Brazil is reaping the fruits of its neglect of coronavirus. Other countries noted above are losing momentum in the phase of weakening the quarantine regime. This is an extremely instructive experience for countries in which epidemics are at an earlier stage of development.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) did not change (5.58% and 5.58%), while the IP progress indicator fell back 0.01% (99.92%).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has advanced. The value of the progress indicator for the day increased and reached the level of 94.71% against 94.28%.
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past reporting day, Brazil has once again swapped places with Russia. This time, the epidemic in Russia took a higher position. The location of other countries in the ranking has not changed.
The graphs 5–9 show the actual dynamics values of the daily (incremental) indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 epidemic in Ukrain.
The coronavirus, unlike our high officials, does not puzzle over what (“correct”) expressions call what occurs in the country (whether it is an outbreak or not, the number of tests is to blame or not), but simply does its job. And when the coronavirus does its job, then the corresponding diagrams take a very disappointing look.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Our initiative group and mission:
Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators