Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
05/08/2020. No 133.
According to the official statistics as of August 4, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the countries we tracked is as shown in Fig. 1–3.
In fig. 3 continue to stand out for their atypical trajectory of values for the IP epidemic progress indicator in Israel and Japan, in countries that until recently were recognized leaders in containing the coronavirus.
Israel, against the background of a large number of new infections, continues to show a large number of recovered in recent days. In Japan, only the first factor works, i.e. there is an increase in the number of new cases, so the progress indicator has entered its peak.
Changes in the values of the progress indicator over the past two days are showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.
The nature of “progress” in Israel is still the same: the excess of the number of recovered over the number of new infections against the background of a significant number of new patients. In Brazil, the USA and Russia, the situation is about the same. However, in Russia, the number of recorded new cases of the disease is consistently, albeit slowly, decreasing.
Outsiders of this rating, Japan, Ukraine and France, have recently been increasing (to varying degrees) the daily rate of new infected, which, against the background of the relative stability of other indicators, naturally leads to a decrease in the values of progress indicators in these countries.
All this in general determines a certain stability of the rating of countries in terms of the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 5), which has not undergone significant changes recently. In addition, this, in turn, retains the relevance of the overall assessment of the pandemic as insufficiently contained by key (in terms of the formation of general trends) countries.
Reaching the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the process of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: