Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
01/08/2020. No 131.
According to the official statistics as of July 31, 2020, the trajectories of the IP progress indicator values for the countries that are included in the list of countries monitored by us are as shown in Fig. 1–3.
The changes that have occurred since our previous review are illustrating by the diagram in Fig. 4.
The greatest “progress” in three days was showing by Israel, Russia, the United States and South Korea.
During the reporting period, in the context of a huge influx of new patients, over the past weeks, Israel has again vacated a significant number of places in hospitals, showing the number of recovered in just one day (July 30, 2020) 10,743 people.
In the other countries listed above, the situation is about the same: the number of discharges exceeds the average number of new infections.
At the other end of the ranking are countries that at one time reached a high level of epidemic control. These are Germany, China, France and Japan. In these countries, a second wave of infected people began, caused by the weakening of quarantine.
The turbulent events of recent days in some countries have led to the following changes in the ranking of countries (Fig. 5). Israel left the last position in the ranking and moved to the 4-th position from the bottom. Japan, which has seen a sharp deterioration in the epidemiological situation in recent days, dropped one position down, letting Russia go ahead.
In general, analyzing the situation in the world from the standpoint of the dynamics of the progress indicator in the key world countries and the pandemic in general, it can be stating that there are all signs that most countries were unable to take control of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic and followed the path of developing the so-called “collective immunity”. The essence of which, in our opinion, is that until the vaccine appears, the population will independently resist the coronavirus, and states will only provide them with all possible assistance in this. There is no longer any question that any state is obliged to protect its citizens from the impending threat.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: