Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
19/08/2020. S-No 142.
Over two reporting days, of August 18, 2020, the nature of the development of the epidemic in the countries we tracked, as well as the pandemic in the world as a whole, practically did not change (see Fig. 1–3).
The most impressive are the changes in the structure of the ranking in Fig. 4, characterizing the increments of the IP progress indicator values for the reporting period.
Brazil demonstrates a gigantic number of daily gains of recovered (60 thousand people on average for each of the last two days). For Japan, on average, more than 1,100 recovered per day, and for Israel, more than 1,700 people is also a very high figure. While maintaining high rates of new infections, this allows these countries to maintain the growing trend of the progress indicator in an extensive way.
South Korea, which has kept the spread of coronavirus under tight control for a very long time, has been sharply losing ground in recent days, showing an average daily increase in the number of infected people in the last week, exceeding 220 people, which is 4–5 times higher than the average for many previous weeks.
Germany and France also allowed a new powerful wave of infected people (for Germany it is more than 1,500 people per day, for France up to 3,000 and more people per day).
For the third week in a row, Ukraine has set anti-records for this indicator, which allows it, along with the above-listed neighbors in the rating, to firm occupy its lower steps.
As a result, Germany and South Korea in the main ranking (Fig. 5) dropped one position, while Ukraine and France did not do the same just because they are already at the bottom of this ranking.
None of these provides grounds for changing the overall assessment of the trends in the development of the COVID-19 coronavirus pandemic as consistently negative.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using exclusively to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: