Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)

Statistical monitor

30.05.2020. No 72.

We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 29, 2020.

Most of the countries, we’ve been monitoring, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4). These countries are Brazil, Iran, Israel, Spain and South Korea. Everything is clear with Brazil, where the government and a significant part of the population openly ignore the threat of coronavirus. In the other countries, as mentioned above, it is a consequence of the steps taken for easing of the quarantine measures.

At the same time, in China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC) and I (CC) remained unchanged as of May 29,2020 and are 5,58% and 5,59% correspondingly. The value of the IP progress indicator is increasing for the second consecutive day, after a long interval, allowing the outbreak in this country to reach the level of 99.92% vs 90,91% in the previous day.

The outbreak of coronavirus in Germany took a small step forward. The value of the progress indicator of the outbreak in this country has risen to 94,36% from 94.15%.

The rating of outbreaks and pandemics in the world as a whole is shown in diagram Fig. 5. Over the past day Brazil dropped two positions as a result of a large number of cumulative reported new cases (more than 29 thousand people). The ranking of the other countries remained unchanged.

Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now

More than a month and a half ago, we paid attention, both in the statistical and in the forecast monitors, to the beginning of the peak daily growth formation in the cumulative reported cases (see Fig. 7b, April 19–24, 2020). Other researchers predicted the formation of a peak at a later date. This issue was critical for us because our models, despite their systemic nature, focus on “extracting” the current trends from existing at the time of statistics models’ intensification and their extrapolation to future periods. Then we argued (this is, however, an obvious fact) that the creators of these statistics are the government (making the relevant decisions, organizing and monitoring their execution); the country’s population, who are obliged to fulfill the requirements, and statistical offices.

The role of each of the creators of statistics should be the object of special research and is beyond the scope of our interests and authority. However, the results of their activities are obvious. We see the results from Fig. 7. From the graph in this figure (at least for us), it can be clearly seen that the formation of the peak of its downward curve is significantly (more than a month) delayed. This is the main subject of our concern lately. That is why we regularly publish similar graphs for other countries to be able to compare the outbreak’s character in Ukraine with the outbreaks in countries, where successful or not quite successfully cope with the spread of coronavirus.

In this regard, again we publish graphs for outbreaks in other countries analogues to graphs 6–10 on Ukraine. This time Israel is chosen, where very strict quarantine measures were taken at the initial stage. However, despite extensive experience to curb the spread of the outbreak, there are negative effects (see Fig. 11–15 and, in particular, Fig. 12 and a surge of new cases in recent days), which suggests that this phase is not as simple as it seemed at first glance.

Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Fig. 3 shows the “average”.

Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

The case fatality rates, that widely used in medical statistics, are not capable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.