Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor
06/15/2020. No 88.

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, as of official statistics as of June 14, 2020.

Over the past day, the epidemics in Israel, Iran, China, Turkey, Ukraine, France and South Korea did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In most of these countries, the main reasons lie in the difficulties of the phase of weakening the quarantine mode. The massiveness of this phenomenon suggests that this is a real problem that many countries can not yet cope with.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased by 0.01% and reached the level of 5.57%, the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (5.58%), the value of the IP progress indicator decreased by 0.07% and recorded at around 99.84%. The reason for this was a significant number of new infections in China over the reporting day.

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany continued to move to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 96.48% against 96.45% in the previous reporting day. This was achieved due to the fact that more people recovered over the increased number of new cases in recent days. Thus, in Germany, the relaxation of quarantine negatively affects the total number of infected.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has advanced. The value of the daily progress indicator for this country has grown and reached the level of 95.06% against 94.95%

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. For the past reporting location of countries in it has not changed.

Graphs 5–9 show the indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine and pandemic indicators in the world. The epidemiological situation in our country and in the world as a whole is unsatisfactory and has been worsening recently.

The positive experience of several countries in containing the epidemic of coronavirus COVID-19 shows that the current situation indicates the inability and / or unwillingness of governments and citizens of the respective countries to implement an effective policy to curb the spread of coronavirus. And this is understandable, for the implementation of such a policy requires significant material and intellectual resources, which not every country has.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values ​​of both indicators of mortality should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine