Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor
06/16/2020. No 89.

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators for the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 15, 2020.

Over the past day, epidemics in Israel, Iran, China, Turkey, Ukraine, South Korea, and Japan have not shown positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). In most of these countries, the main reasons for this are related to the difficulties of going through the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime. The massiveness of this phenomenon suggests that this is a real problem that many countries can not yet cope with.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) have not changed (5.57% and 5.58%, respectively). However, the value of the IP progress indicator again significantly (for this country) fell by 0.05% and reached 99.79%. The reason for this was a significant number of new infections in China.

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany continues to progress gradually to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to the level of 96.51% against 96.48% in the previous reporting day. This was again achieved by the excess of the number of convalesced over the significantly increased in recent days, the number of new cases. Thus, in Germany, the relaxation of quarantine also negatively affects the total number of infected.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, the location of countries in it has not changed.

The graphs in fig. 5–9 include along with the indicators of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine and in Israel. The epidemiological situation in our country is still not satisfactory, as are the trends of its change, and in Israel, recent trends are unsatisfactory.

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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values ​​of both indicators of mortality should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764
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Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine