Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

23/10/2020. S-No 166.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/191723612470542

After a long break time, we are releasing the Statistical Monitor again with country rankings by IP progress indicator level. The pause caused by the fact that short-term changes, despite the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, were slightly reflect in the dynamics of this summary indicator.

The dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the countries we tracked as of October 22, 2020 is showing in Fig. 1. and surprisingly, over the past 16 days, the overall picture has practically not changed.

Countries that showed a drop in this indicator (Germany, Italy, Russia, Ukraine and France) continued to fall. In countries that showed an increase in the progress indicator (Brazil, Israel, USA, South Korea, Japan), this trend continued. China, Iran and Turkey have demonstrated a certain level of stability throughout the recent period.

The nuances lie in the actual scale of the ongoing processes (see Fig. 2). Israel, finally coming to its senses, took decisive measures and significantly reduced the growth of infected, which, against the background of a huge daily number of recovered people, led to a significant increase in the level of the progress indicator. This indicator fell just as rapidly in Italy, Germany and France. Russia and Ukraine, as countries unable to cope with the containment of the coronavirus, slowed down in the progress indicator solely due to the large increase in the number of recovered people. A similar situation observed in the United States, where the growth rate of those who recovered is even higher.

Because of such actions, in the final ranking (Fig. 3) Israel moved up significantly, while Italy slid down just as significantly.

The diagrams given eloquently indicate that if there is the will (and the ability) to stop (suspend) the spread of the coronavirus, it is possible (Israel, China, Japan, South Korea). However, such a will should be among the authorities and the population.

Unfortunately, Ukraine demonstrates the absence of the first, second, and third (skill). Nevertheless, the population of the country is already preparing for this turn of events: “Here we will be forced to activate the triage protocol with the priority of providing medical assistance” (quote from the speech of the Minister of Health of Ukraine). We have already seen such a protocol in action in Italy during the first outbreak of coronavirus disease, and then the results of its application horrified the whole world. Now, it turns out, you can safely plan such a course of events.

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Sources of statistical data:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://covid19.rnbo.gov.ua/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Accuracy of our forecasts: