Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor
06/10/2020. No 83.

We continue to publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators for the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, as of official statistics as of June 9, 2020.

Over the past day of the epidemic, a number of countries did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3). These are Brazil, Israel and South Korea. The first of these countries is dominated by neglect of coronavirus, Israel and South Korea have so far failed to pass without loss to the quarantine relaxation phase.

In China, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (5.58%), while the values ​​of I (CC) and the IP progress indicator changed for the better by 0.01%, reaching 5.58% and 99 , 93% respectively.

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany continues to move to its final state. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country rose to the level of 95.99% against 95.80% for the previous reporting day.

Japan also moved forward after a short hitch (93.72% versus 93.50%)

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, Turkey and Italy went around Israel, where many new cases of infection were recorded that day, Russia went around Brazil, which is located in the anti-record zone in terms of the increase in the number of cases.

In today’s statistical monitor in fig. Figures 5–9 combine diagrams illustrating the dynamics of the main daily indicators of the epidemic in Ukraine and the pandemic in the World (all countries of the world except mainland China). It is the pandemic that will be used by us as an object of comparison with the epidemic in Ukraine. In this regard, we recall that in recent pandemic statistics, countries with an openly weak level of control of the coronavirus epidemic have dominated. Especially useful will be its comparison with the coronavirus epidemic in our country.

As usual, diagrams 5 show the dynamics of the actual values ​​of both mortality rates I (TC), I (CC), generally accepted in medical statistics, and the IP progress indicator we proposed. Here the similarity of the compared objects is small.

In the diagrams of Fig. Figures 6–9 show the dynamics of the actual values ​​of daily increment in the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in a particular country to date.

You do not need to have keen analytical vision to see a very similar picture in the graphs of Fig. 6–8. Specialists of our group possess modern tools for multivariate statistical comparisons and can provide evidence-based evidence for this statement. However, in this case, there is no need to resort to the use of powerful statistical tools. There is no need to specifically emphasize that the trends that reflect these diagrams are difficult to consider positive.

The latter obviously does not apply to the graphs in Fig. 9, in which the situation in Ukraine looks much more preferable than in the rest of the world as a whole.

The latter obviously does not apply to the graphs in Fig. 9, in which the situation in Ukraine looks much more preferable than in the rest of the world as a whole.
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the average.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values ​​of both WHO mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.

Sources of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764