Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
12/07/2020. No 115.
Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 11, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, the USA, South Korea, and Japan, as well as the pandemic in the world with the exception of China and the pandemic in the world as a whole, did not show positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).
The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day showed the following indicators of the development of epidemics in their countries.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.54% and 5.57%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.02% (99.61%), due to an excess in the number of people who recovered (14 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (2 people).
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (4.57%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.01% (4.72%, a positive shift). The value of the IP progress indicator increased as a result (96 , 91% versus 96.76%), which was facilitated by the excess of the number of people who recovered (500 people) over the number of new infections (224 people).
In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) and I (CC) decreased by 0.01% and 0.02%, reaching 14.30% and 15.22%, respectively. The value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.05% (94.52%), due to the excess of the number of convalesced (306 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (188 people), which has been quite stable lately.
The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4. For the reporting day, the location of countries in the ranking has not changed.
Today, a set of charts characterizing trends in the main indicators of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic for Ukraine will be replenished with another indicator — the reproduction coefficient (index), the base reproductive number R0.
This indicator characterizes the number of people who will be infecting with one sick person and accumulates the effect of factors such as the frequency of contacts, the duration of the infectious period, the rate of infectivity, and the effectiveness of measures aimed at reducing the strength of these factors.
At R0> 1, an accelerated (exponential) increase in the number of infected is observing. When R0 <1, the growth rate of the number of infected people slows down, and when they reach a certain critical level, the spread of the virus (increase in the number of infected people) stops.
The reproduction rate is not directly measurable. Its value depends on the chosen model of the infection mechanism. In our review, to estimate the reproductive number, we used the Methodological Recommendations MP 3.1.0178–20 “Determining the set of measures, as well as indicators that are the basis for the phased removal of restrictive measures in the context of the epidemic spread of COVID-19,” as well as our modified analogue of the calculation method, taking into account autocorrelation (indicator R0 (II) in the diagram of Fig. 7).
In general, the diagrams in Fig. 5–11 characterize the dynamics of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine.
Diagram pic. 5 shows the negative trends in the indicators of the total number of infected (TC) and dead (D) and positive, but difficult to explain, if we do not consider possible manipulations with statistics, a trend of accelerated growth in the number of convalesced (R) and a decrease in the number of active cases (AC). The dynamics diagrams of similar daily indices in Fig. 2 also radiate positive. 10, 11.
Only the dynamics of the IP progress indicator respond to the positive trends noted above by the growth of their knowledge in recent days (Fig. 6). At the same time, the dynamics of mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) for obvious reasons ignores these positive trends (Fig. 6). Indeed, the trend in the number of deaths (Fig. 9) is negative.
We do not share the optimism of some domestic forecast developers regarding the development trends of the epidemic in Ukraine over the past two weeks. The dynamics of the reproductive number R0 presented in Fig. 7, indicates that for a long time its values fluctuate around the mark of 1.00. However, this means that the increase in the total number of infected people balances on the verge of (rapid) exponential (see explanations above regarding the reproductive number) or lower than exponential growth. This is convincingly evidencing by the blue curve in the diagram of Fig. 5 total number of infected (Total Cases), which shows active growth.
At the same time, domestic official statistics have not yet recorded signs of a significant slowdown in growth, including daily indicators of the number of infected people (Fig. 8).
All this indicates that decision makers have even greater scope for the manifestation of their talents in curbing the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine. We do not lose hope of seeing these talents in action.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: