Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, O.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
05/28/2020. No 70.
We continue to publish the index of progress of the IP of the coronavirus COVID-19epidemic in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 27, 2020.
Most of the countries we monitor, with the exception of Brazil, Spain, and South Korea, for the reasons noted in our yesterday’s statistical monitor, showed positive progress over the past 24 hours (Figure 1–4).
In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP have not changed and, as of May 26, 2020, are 5.58%, 5.59%, and 99.90%, respectively (see Fig. 1- 4, 5). This is a typical situation for epidemics at the final stage of their development, which is characterized by an asymptotic approximation of all epidemic indicators to their final values.
The coronavirus epidemic in South Korea has stepped back. Over the past day, the value of the progress indicator in this country has decreased from 93.93% to 93.78%. Germany also advanced with a current progress indicator of 94.05% versus 93.92% on April 25, 2020.
The ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world as a whole is shown in the diagram in Fig. 5. Over the past day, the ranking places of the countries in have not changed.
Diagram 6 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both mortality rates that generally accepted in medical statistics and the IP progress indicator that we proposed. In the diagrams (Fig. 7–10) it is shown the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that describe the relevant statistics in the best manner. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic develops in Ukraine to date.
In Ukraine, as follows from the above graphs, there are signs of the formation of positive trends.
In this issue, we again publish charts on the coronavirus epidemic in Brazil similar to charts 6–10 for Ukraine (see Fig. 11–15). This is due to the special position of the government and the population of this country regarding the epidemic. Ignoring of nature’s rule of law is usually expensive. This is also indicated by the graphs of the above diagrams, in which there are no signs of containment of the epidemic. There is no doubt that such (negative) experience will be useful for other countries. Another thing is how to explain this benefit to the relatives of the victims, given the fact that the main duty and purpose of any state is to protect its citizens.
When progress indicator (IP) reaches the level of 1.00 it indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken together, for China, for countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemics, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates that are widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.
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Publications on Mortality and Progress Indicators