Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical monitor
31.05.2020. No 73.
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 30, 2020.
Most of the countries, we’ve been monitoring, over the past day didn’t show a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4). These countries are Brazil, Iran, Spain, France and South Korea. It is the result of either neglect of the risk of infection with coronavirus (Brazil), or by the difficulty of getting out of quarantine (Spain, France, South Korea).
In China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator remained unchanged and as of May 30,2020 are 5,58%, 5,59% and 99,92% correspondingly.
The outbreak of coronavirus in Germany took a small step forward. The value of the progress indicator of the outbreak in this country has risen to 94,66% from 94,36%.
The rating of outbreaks and pandemic in the world as a whole is shown in diagram Fig. 5. Italy is ahead of Turkey within the last 24 hours. The ranking of the other countries remained unchanged.
Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.
As follows from the presented graphs, the delay in the peak daily growth formation of the cumulative reported cases, which indicates a lack of significant progress in containing the spread of coronavirus, remains a matter of concern in Ukraine .
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Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
The case fatality rates, that widely used in medical statistics, are not capable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088