Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
12/09/2020. S-No 156.
As of September 11, 2020, negative trends of the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic development generally remain (see Fig. 1–3), despite positive developments in a number of countries, which until recently made the main negative contribution to the pandemic. We talked about the United States in the last monitor. Today we note South Korea (Fig. 1–2), which is making every effort to neutralize the second wave of the spread of coronavirus. Thanks to these efforts, the progress indicator of this country has shown rather rapid growth for almost two weeks.
This reflected in the rating of short-term changes (Fig. 4), in which over the past three days (so many days have passed since the release of the previous monitor) South Korea takes the first position. Next to, it are Japan, Brazil and the United States, but only the United States achieved this result, like Korea, by reducing the number of new infections. Other countries — leaders in this ranking — have followed the proven path of accelerated recovery (patient discharge) with a very high rate of new patients.
The unconditional outsiders of this rating (France and Israel) demonstrate exorbitant numbers of new infections, which they did not have even in the initial phase of the epidemic. This is especially surprising because France, unlike Israel, suffered some of the most significant casualties in the early months of the epidemic.
Paradoxical, not all these local turbulences affected the stability of the overall rating (Fig. 5), which clear divides all the countries monitored by us into the sole leader (China).
Averages who are fighting the coronavirus with varying success, outright outsiders (France, USA , Ukraine), which, despite a different background, demonstrate (in contrast to the United States recently) an unwillingness or inability to resist the coronavirus.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken and a number of individual countries.
Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases where there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: