Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)
Statistical monitor
25.05.2020. No 67.
(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/143965623913008)
We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 24, 2020.
Most of the countries we’ve been monitoring, with the exception of Iran, Spain, the USA and South Korea, as well as China (the progress indicator doesn’t change for many days), over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4)).
In China, over the past 24 hours, the value of case fatality rates I(TC) had decreased to 5,58% (due to new cases). The value of progress indicator IP (99,90%) and case fatality rate I (CC) (5,59%) remained unchanged.
The coronavirus outbreak in South Korea took a step back. For the past day, the value of progress indicator in the country increased to 93,65% vs 93,69%. Germany is a little behind South Korea (progress indicator in this country has reached 93,54% vs 93,49% as of May 23, 2020).
Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. The ranking of the countries remained unchanged
Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.
In Ukraine, the only deaths growth rate is encouraging, which demonstrate a positive trend in recent days. Explicit (and implicit) signs of curbing the outbreak in our country have not yet been detected.
In this issue, we are publishing graphs on the coronavirus pandemic in Russia similar to graphs 6–10 in Ukraine (see Fig. 11–15), where an outbreak, more precisely the official statistics of the coronavirus outbreak with amazing cumulative reported cases and the increase in cumulative reported deaths (Fig. 13), as well as incredibly low fatality rate (see Fig. 11). To these may be added harsh criticism of Russian statistics both domestically and abroad.
Note.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.
Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.
WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.
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Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19
Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427
Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088