Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

15/07/2020. No 119.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/162446125398291

Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 14, 2020.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Brazil, Israel, and Japan did not show a positive trend in progress (Fig. 1–3).

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics in their countries.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.54% and 5.56%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.02% (99.64%), due to an excess in the number of convalescing (26 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (3 people).

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased by 0.01% (4.55%, a negative shift), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (4.70% versus 4.71%, this is a positive point), the value of the IP progress indicator has increased (96.65% versus 96.91%). This was the result of the excess of the number of recovered (400 people) over the number of new infections (330 people).

In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (14.38%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.02% (15.18%, a positive shift). The value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.10% (94.69%), due to a slight excess of the number of convalesced (335 people) over the number of new cases of the disease (114 people).

The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.

For the reporting day, the location of countries in the ranking has not changed.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and dead.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)

Publications on mortality and progress indicators:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

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Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine

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Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine