Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
Statistical Monitor
13/08/2020. No 138.
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/171888937787343
According to the statistics as of August 12, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the countries monitored by us is showing in Fig. 1–3.
On these charts, apart from Israel and Japan, the distinguished ones should be France, which, although not as “bright” as the indicated countries, demonstrates “regression” in the dynamics of the IP indicator (see Fig. 1 and Fig. 3).
This is also confirm by the diagram in Fig. 4 for a ranking of countries by progress / regression, with France at the bottom.
None of the leaders in this ranking has achieved positive results by increasing the level of containment of the spread of coronavirus. In all these countries, there are high (by the standards of each of these countries) increase in new infections. However, due to the rate of recovery of patients, these countries manage to demonstrate progress in terms of the IP indicator (see Fig. 5). As we noted, this is progress of poor quality, extensive progress.
The outsiders of this rating do not even demonstrate that, because progress indicator fixes a frank rollback in the development of the coronavirus epidemic in these countries.
In the net balance over the past two reporting days, the main ranking of countries in terms of the progress indicator remained unchanged as unchanged and our negative assessment of the level of resistance to the spread of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the whole (on average) world.
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Note.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy view and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/
Our materials also:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/144983953811175 (France)
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088