Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
31/08/2020. S-No 151.
Over two reporting days, of August 30, 2020, since the release of the previous monitor, negative trends in the development of the epidemic in the countries we monitored and the pandemic in general persist (see Fig. 1–4).
This time, let us turn our attention to the countries showing the worst trends. These are South Korea (see the corresponding graph in Fig. 3), France and Ukraine (see the graphs for these countries in Fig. 4). These countries are openly failing in the fight against the spread of the coronavirus. Other countries show a more moderate picture of growth or decline in the level of the progress indicator.
Thus, the leaders of the daily change rating (Japan and Brazil) continue to provide an increase in the progress indicator due to the high growth rates of those who recovered, but in Brazil, there has also a decrease in the number of new infections, which indicates an improvement in the quality of growth of this indicator (Fig. 5).
Outsiders of this rating (France, South Korea, Ukraine, Germany, Italy) demonstrate uncompensated high levels of new infections during the reporting period, which leads to a decrease in the value of the progress indicator.
Due to the unchanged trends in the development of epidemics in the countries, we observed, the overall ranking of them in terms of the progress indicator remains unchanged (Fig. 6).
Thus, no significant signs of an improvement in the general situation in the world have yet been observing.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
For clarity, Diagram 4 shows only “outsiders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: