Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
25/08/2020. S-No 148.
Over two reporting days, of August 24, 2020, since the release of the previous coronavirus pandemic monitor the negative nature of the epidemic has not changed (see Fig. 1–4). This was the reason to return to our statistical monitors of the group “outsiders” in terms of the level of progress in the development of epidemics (Fig. 4).
It deservedly included those who were initially unable to curb the coronavirus, as well as those who sagged only under its second onslaught.
The behavior strategy of leaders and outsiders of our rating has not either changed (see Fig. 5).
The leaders in the two-day increase in the level of the progress indicator (Israel, Brazil, Japan, and United States) achieve this due to a higher increase in the number of recovered people compared to a very high number of new infections. Although, it should be noting that the United States has already left the first place in the world in terms of daily growth.
Outsiders of this rating (France, South Korea, Ukraine, Germany, Italy) secured their positions due to a significant number of new infections.
The stability of trends in the development of epidemics in all these countries also ensures the relative constancy of our main ranking, presented in Fig. 6.
In addition, all this constancy observed so far in the area of negative patterns.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
Diagram 3 shows the “average”.
For clarity, Diagram 4 shows only “outsiders” from the analyzed regions and countries.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
Our materials also:
Accuracy of our forecasts:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/152284093081161 (South Korea)
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: