Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
28/06/2020. No 101.
Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 27, 2020.
During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Brazil, Israel, China, the USA, Ukraine, and Japan, as well as the pandemic in the world as a whole, did not demonstrate positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).
In these countries, with the exception of Brazil, the USA, and Ukraine, the main reasons for the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the phase of weakening of the quarantine regime.
The three leaders in our ranking showed the following indicators for the development of epidemics.
In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.55% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and dropped to 99.51% (99.53% a day earlier))
In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) has not changed (4.64%), the mortality rate I (CC) has decreased (4.84% versus 4.85%), and the value of the IP progress indicator has risen to the level of 95.81% (against 95.74%).
The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has again taken another step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to 95.22% against 95.41% in the previous reporting day. The mortality rate I (TC) decreased and reached the level of 5.31% (against 5.33%), the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.57% against 5.58%).
The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.
During the reporting day, the epidemic in Brazil fell one position, skipping ahead the coronavirus pandemic in the world as a whole, excluding mainland China.
In general, the situation in the world (for example, those countries that are the object of our observation) can be describing as follows.
Leaders still experience certain difficulties with the implementation of measures to weaken quarantine. Pandemic drivers such as the United States and Brazil still cannot control the spread of coronavirus. Ukraine is closer in nature to the situation with the latter, with the exception of significantly lower scales of the disaster.
A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.
Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Chart 3 displays the “average”.
The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to reflect sufficiently informatively the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistics:
Our materials also:
The accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on mortality and progress indicators: