Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development
(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)
24/09/2020. S-No 160.
The dynamics of the IP progress indicator for the tracked countries inclusive September 23, 2020 is showing in Fig. 1–3.
The diagram in Fig. 2 shows the trajectories of the IP progress indicator for countries with a positive trend. Fig. 3 shows the dynamics of the progress indicator of those countries that during the observation period experienced certain difficulties in ensuring the progressive movement of the epidemic to the final stage.
In the first group (Fig. 2), only Brazil, the United States and the Pandemic as a whole demonstrate an increase in the level of the progress indicator. Moreover, this is mainly achieve by a rapid rate of recovery, and not due to a dramatic reduction in the number of new infections. The rest of the countries under the pressure of the coronavirus are slowly retreating — the value of the progress indicator has been gradually decreasing lately.
In the second group (Fig. 3), only Japan and South Korea have so far managed to reverse the negative movement (decline) of the progress indicator. They achieved this by increasing the number of recovered and by reducing the number of new infections. France, on the other hand, is frankly losing ground to the coronavirus, hoping that the peak mortality rate, as it was in the first phase of the epidemic, will not be repeat.
This distribution of countries is clearly manifesting in the rating of short-term changes (Fig. 4), taking into account the change in the level of the progress indicator over the past four days.
Countries that are actively fighting (in one way or another) with the coronavirus lead this ranking. Countries sagging under its onslaught form a vast group of outsiders.
The overall rating by the level of the progress indicator (Fig. 5) indicates that no one has managed to come close to the level of China, and the attempts of individual countries to become on a par with it ended in a rollback. As you can see in this chart, the leadership contenders lined up like a ruler at a respectful distance from China’s undisputed leader.
Thus, not today, the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in most of the countries we have observed remains poorly controlled, as does the pandemic as a whole.
The achievement of the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.
Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken and a number of individual countries.
Other similar diagrams show “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” in cases where there are significant differences between them.
The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.
At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.
Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.
Sources of statistical data:
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Accuracy of our forecasts:
Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator: