Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

4 min readJun 29, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

29/06/2020. No 102.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/156794452630125

Today we publish a daily summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 28, 2020.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, China, the USA, Ukraine, and France, South Korea, and Japan, as well as the pandemic in the world as a whole, did not demonstrate positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3).

In these countries, with the exception of the United States and Ukraine, the main causes of the rollback in the development of epidemics are associated with an increase in the spread of coronavirus during the weakening phase of the quarantine regime.

The three leaders in our ranking showed the following indicators for the development of epidemics.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (5.55% and 5.58%, respectively), the value of the IP progress indicator continued to decline and reached 99.50% (99.51% a day earlier) due to new infections.

In Germany, the mortality rate I (TC) decreased (4.63% versus 4.64%), the mortality rate I (CC) did not change (4.84%), the value of the IP progress indicator increased to 95.83% (against 95.81%). This was the result of the excess of the number of recovered over the number of new infections.

The coronavirus epidemic in Japan has again taken another step back. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country decreased to 95.03% against 95.22% in the previous reporting day. The value of the mortality rate I (TC) decreased and reached the level of 5.28% (against 5.31%), the value of the mortality rate I (CC) also decreased (5.56% against 5.57%). As in China, this dynamics of these indicators was due to new cases of infection.

The overall ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is showing in the diagram in Fig. 4.

During the reporting day, the epidemic in Brazil once again changed places with a pandemic in the world, taking this time a higher position. In this country, in recent days there has been a slight decrease in the number of new cases of infection compared with a record in the previous period.

Today, as usual, in the diagrams of Fig. 5–9 are charts characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main (mainly daily) indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine.

The epidemic in the country is still gaining momentum, indicating that not only the citizens of our country do not believe and / or not be afraid of the coronavirus, but also the coronavirus is not afraid of our citizens. Moreover, unlike them, he knows very well and, most importantly, does his job. While only he will do his job, we will have such schedules as all the last days and even weeks.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign those to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able reflect to sufficiently informatively the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)