Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

11/08/2020. No 137.

According to the statistics as of August 10, 2020, the dynamics of the IP progress indicator values for the countries monitored by us is as shown in Fig. 1–3.

As follows from these diagrams, the situation in the world is somewhat stabilizing, which is recorded by the more moderate dynamics of the level of the progress indicator in all the countries we tracked and in the world as a whole.

Changes in the values of the progress indicator over the past two days are showшnп in the diagram in Fig. 4.

The leader of today’s rating, Brazil, shows a significant decrease in the daily increase in the number of infected and an increase in the number of recovered.

In the United States, there are similar trends. However, in a less pronounced form.

Countries at the opposite end of the ranking are openly losing ground in the confrontation with the coronavirus. The only difference between them is that in South Korea all these collisions develop at the level of tens of people, and in other countries — at the level of many hundreds. And all these gestures in aggregate do not yet in any way affect the nature of the distribution of countries in our main ranking (Fig. 5), as well as the overall assessment of the Pandemic as actively developing.



Reaching the indicator of progress (IP) equal to 1.00 means the end of the epidemic in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added to the lists of those who have recovered and died.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries in the world together taken, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are using solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and to separate them into different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the end of the epidemics, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality indicators widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficient informative reflecting the dynamics of the process of the development of epidemics at the initial stage. In contrast, the IP progress indicator records changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively practically throughout the life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistical data:

Our materials also:

Accuracy of our forecasts: (Germany) (Spain) (Italy) (USA) (Ukraine) (France) (South Korea)

Publications on case fatality rates and progress indicator:

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine