Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical monitor
09.06.2020. No 82.

We continue to publish daily releases of the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 08, 2020.

The last day once again demonstrated that the release from quarantine is an obvious problem for many countries in the world.

Over the past day the pandemic throughout the world didn’t show a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–3). China, Israel, Russia, Ukraine, South Korea and Japan among the countries from the list of countries and regions of the world which are the objects of our group’s monitoring.

In China, the values of case fatality rates I(TC), I (CC) and IP progress indicator remained unchanged and make up 5,58%, 5,59% and 99,92% correspondingly.

The coronavirus outbreak in Germany keeps moving towards completion. The value of progress indicator in the country has increased to 95,80% vs 95,70%.
Overall rating of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in Fig. 4. During the past day Russia and Brazil have changed places. Brazil ranked higher.

There are combined diagrams shown in today’s statistical monitor (fig. 5–9), illustrating the dynamics of the major indicators of the outbreak in Ukraine and the United States, and one of the countries that we usually mention in such monitors with the purpose of comparative analysis.

As usual, Fig.5 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates I(TC), I(CC) generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP, that we propose.

Unfortunately, today, these graphs are easy to comment, at the same time, sadly. In both countries, the dynamics of all indicators reflected in the graphs is unsatisfactory. As regards the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine, it can be stated that this is a statistical portrait of the government’s new “strategy” of the coronavirus cases’ “containment”. We, as analysts, cannot be satisfied with such situation.
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Unfortunately, today, these graphs are easy to comment, at the same time, sadly. In both countries, the dynamics of all indicators reflected in the graphs is unsatisfactory. As regards the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine, it can be stated that this is a statistical portrait of the government’s new “strategy” of the coronavirus cases’ “containment”. We, as analysts, cannot be satisfied with such situation.
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Fig. 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.
Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.
Fig. 3 shows the “average”.
Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

The case fatality rates, widely used in medical statistics, unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.

Source of statistics:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our publications:
https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790
https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine