Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

5 min readJul 8, 2020

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A, Dilenko, N.I. Khumarova)

Statistical Monitor

08/07/2020. No 111.

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/160005748975662

Today we publish a summary of the status of progress indicators of the IP epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of July 08, 2020.

During the reporting day, the COVID-19 epidemic of coronavirus in Israel, China and Japan did not demonstrate positive progress dynamics (Fig. 1–3).

Note that the level of progress is determined by the ratio of the total number of infections and closed cases. Thus, the pace of development of the epidemic is determined, inter alia, by the growth rate of the number of dead and recovered. For example, Brazil, which demonstrates an inability to take control of the coronavirus epidemic, often demonstrates an increase in the values of the progress indicator precisely due to the large number of dead and recovered during the reporting day. This is occasionally observed in the development of the epidemic in other countries.

The three leaders of our rating for the reporting day demonstrated the following indicators of the development of epidemics.

In China, the mortality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IP have not changed (5.55%, 5.57% and 99.52%, respectively).

In Germany, the mortality rates I (TC) and I (CC) did not change (4.59% and 4.75%, respectively), and the value of the IP progress indicator increased by 0.12% (96.70%) due to a smaller than on the last day, the number of new infections (298 against 499 people) while maintaining the same number of people who recovered (500 people).

In Italy, the mortality rate I (TC) did not change (14.42%), the mortality rate I (CC) decreased by 0.02% (15.33%). As a result, the value of the IP progress indicator increased to the level of 94.11% against 93.92%. This result was made possible thanks to the large number of people who recovered per day (574 people).

The global ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. For reporting Turkey, like yesterday, South Korea pushed Japan another step down.

Today in fig. 5–9 are charts characterizing the dynamics of the actual values of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and in Russia.

We have repeatedly noted the similarity in the trends in the development of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine and in those countries that are among countries with insufficiently effective control over the development of epidemics. Therefore, it is not surprising that the trends in the development of the coronavirus epidemic in these countries have much in common.

Comparing these trends, we are aware that we are comparing official statistics, i.e. official statistical portraits of the coronavirus epidemics in Ukraine and Russia.

As can be seen from the diagram in Fig. 5, in Russia, the dynamics of the number of active cases (current patients) is significantly more positive. As a result, the trajectory of the values of the progress indicator looks more optimistic (Fig. 6).

Russia, unlike Ukraine, did not allow the second wave of the epidemic to occur (see Fig. 7).

However, the differences end there (see Fig. 8–10), except for the differences in the overall scale of the epidemic. Among the negative in both cases should be attributed the dynamics of daily growth in the number of deaths, which does not show a downward trend.

In general, it follows from the statistics that both countries still have a wide scope (not to be confused with opportunities, desires and skills) to strengthen control over the development of the epidemic.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and dead.

Figure 1 shows the values of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world together taken from China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries.

Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Diagram 3 shows the “average”.

The terms “leaders” and “average” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions according to the level of the IP epidemic progress index and place them in different charts for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both mortality rates should be equal.

Mortality rates widely used in medical statistics are not capable of sufficiently informatively reflecting the dynamics of the epidemic development process at the initial stage. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively throughout the entire life cycle of the epidemic.

Sources of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

https://www.pravda.com.ua/cdn/covid-19/cpa/

Our materials also:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19

https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

The accuracy of our forecasts:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154698732839697 (Germany)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142548897388014 (Spain)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/150095069966730 (Italy)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/148450556797848 (USA)

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/154364292873141 (Ukraine)