Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, O.I. Laiko)

Statistical Monitor

06/04/2020. No 77.

(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/147876856855218)

We continue to publish a daily summary of progress indicators IP for the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of June 03, 2020.

Another candidate for exclusion from our reviews is the coronavirus epidemic in France due to cardinal changes in the statics of past periods in the direction of reduction.

Like all recent days, many countries over the past day have not shown positive dynamics of progress (Fig. 1–3). These countries include Israel, Iran, Spain, China and South Korea. This is largely the result of the difficulty of quarantine exit.

In China, the fatality rates I (TC), I (CC) and IR did not change and as of June 3, 2020 remained at 5.58%, 5.59% and 99.91%, respectively.

The coronavirus epidemic in Germany has taken another small step forward. The value of the epidemic progress indicator in this country increased to 95.43% against 95.10%.

The ranking of epidemics and pandemics in the world is shown in the diagram in Fig. 4. Over the past day, Italy bypassed Iran, and the pandemic in the world with the exception of China — Brazil. The position of other countries in the ranking has not changed.

Diagram 5 shows the dynamics of the actual values of both fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and the IP progress indicator we proposed for the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine. From the perspective of these indicators, the trends in the development of the coronavirus epidemic in Ukraine look quite safe.

The diagrams in Fig. 6–9 show the dynamics of the actual values of the daily increment of the main indicators of the epidemic of the coronavirus COVID-19 in Ukraine and the trends that best describe the relevant statistics. According to the graphs of these diagrams, one can judge how the coronavirus epidemic is developing in Ukraine to date.

The greatest concern is the confident position of the coronavirus on the plateau of daily indicators of the number of new infections formed by it with the help of the authorities and their strategy to counteract the spread of coronavirus (Fig. 6). The dynamics of other indicators is still quite favorable.

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the epidemic in the relevant region, i.e. at the time when there are no new infected, current patients are absent, all previously infected have replenished the lists of recovered and deceased.

Diagram 1 shows the values of the progress indicator IP for all countries of the world, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and a number of other countries. Diagram 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Chart 3 displays the “average”.

Chart 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the epidemic progress index IP and spacing them into different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the end of the epidemic, the values of both WHO fatality rates should be equal.

Fatality rates widely used in medical statistics are not able to adequately reflect the dynamics of the epidemic development process. In contrast, the progress indicator IP captures changes in the development of epidemics quite accurately and informatively.

Source of statistics:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

Our publications:

https://www.facebook.com/MATHMODELCOVID19
https://t.me/mathmodelcovid19

Our initiative group and mission:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/117804769862427

Our publications on case fatality rates and indicator of progress:

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/105684827741088

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/106831140959790

https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/107444734231764

Official page of the state scientific institution Institute of Market Problems and Economic-Ecological Research of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine