Indicators of the coronavirus COVID-19 outbreak development

(A.B. Alyokhin, B.V. Burkynskyi, A.B. Brutman, A.N. Grabovoi, V.A. Dilenko, A.I. Laiko, Z.N. Sokolovska)

Statistical monitor

20.05.2020. No 62.

(https://www.facebook.com/ab.alyokhin/posts/142032067439697)

We continue to publish the COVID-19 outbreak’s IP progress indices in the world and in a number of countries, including Ukraine, according to official statistics as of May 19, 2020.

Many countries, we’ve been monitoring, with the exception of Iran, Japan and Spain, where the outbreak moved backwards in their development, as well as China and South Korea, where the outbreak has suspended, over the past day showed a positive trend of progress (Fig. 1–4).

Generally, the outbreaks and pandemics’ ratings in the world are shown in Fig. 5. Over the past day Germany surpassed South Korea, taking advantage of the outbreak’s suspension in South Korea, ranked second in the rating. The ranking of other countries and regions of the world hasn’t changed.

Fig.6 shows the dynamics of actual values of both case fatality rates generally accepted in medical statistics and progress indicator IP that we propose. Diagrams 7–10 present the dynamics of the actual values of daily growth of the basic indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine and trends that best describe the relevant statistics. The graphs in these diagrams illustrate the development of the coronavirus outbreak in Ukraine until now.

Data for Ukraine, as of the past day, are very favorable. However..

However, we can see how variable are the daily indicators of the COVID-19 outbreak in Ukraine. We also know that a statistical portrait is not necessarily an accurate reflection of the true nature of processes occurring in real life. Therefore, as forecasters (who predict the complex processes), we focus on trends and their detection through the analysis of typically noisy (inaccurate) statistics (data)

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Note.

A progress indicator (IP) of 1.00 indicates the end of the outbreak in the corresponding region, i.e. at the time without new cases, current patients are absent, all previously infected have added the lists of recovered and deceased.

Fig.1 shows the values ​​of the IP progress indicator for all countries of the world taken all together, China, countries of the world with the exception of China and several other countries

Fig. 2 shows the “leaders” from among the analyzed regions and countries.

Fig. 3 shows the “average”.

Fig. 4 shows “outsiders.”

The terms “leaders”, “average” and “outsiders” are used solely to differentiate countries and regions by the level of the IP epidemic progress index and assign them to different diagrams for easy viewing and visual comparison.

At the time of the outbreak completion, the values ​​of both WHO case fatality rates should be equal.

WHO case fatality rates unable to reflect sufficiently the outbreak dynamics. In contrast, the IP progress indicator accurately and informatively captures changes in the outbreak development.